Forecast of conveyor belt market price trends in the second half of 2026

In the first half of 2026, the conveyor belt industry faced multiple factors, including raw material price fluctuations and demand structure adjustments. How will the market evolve in the second half? This article analyzes and predicts from multiple dimensions. ## I. Raw Material Price Trends ### 1. Natural Rubber First Half Review: - Starting Price: 12500 CNY/ton - Peak Price: 13800 CNY/ton (Month 3) - Current Price: 13200 CNY/ton - Increase: 5.6% Key Factors: - Southeast Asian major production zones enter peak tapping season - Stable domestic tire demand - International oil prices fluctuate upward Second Half Forecast: - Supply: Increased output, ample supply - Demand: Steady growth in the tire industry - Price Range: 12800-13500 CNY/ton - Trend: Slight decline, overall stability ### 2. Synthetic Rubber First Half Review: - Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR): 15500→14800 CNY/ton - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR): 16200→15600 CNY/ton Key Factors: - Fluctuations in crude oil prices - Changes in operating rates of production units - Variations in import volumes Second Half Forecast: - Cost Support: Oil prices remain at medium-high levels - Supply-Demand Balance: Basically balanced - Price Movement: Volatile consolidation - Expectation: 14500-15500 CNY/ton ### 3. Fabric Materials Polyester Industrial Yarn: - Current Price: 11500 CNY/ton - Second Half Forecast: 11000-12000 CNY/ton - Trend: Narrow-range volatility Nylon 66: - Current Price: 22000 CNY/ton - Second Half Forecast: 21000-23000 CNY/ton - Trend: High-level operation ### 4. Carbon Black First Half Review: - Prices continued to rise with a cumulative increase of 15% Second Half Forecast: - Tightening coal tar supply - Normalization of environmental production restrictions - Prices prone to rises rather than declines - Expectation: 9500-10500 CNY/ton ## II. Market Demand Analysis ### 1. Downstream Industry Demand Steel Industry: - First Half: Output down 3% year-on-year - Second Half: Expected flat or slight decline - Conveyor Belt Demand: Stable but declining Coal Industry: - First Half: Output up 4% - Second Half: Continued supply guarantee policies - Conveyor Belt Demand: Remains stable Cement Industry: - First Half: Output down 5% - Second Half: Infrastructure investment expected to drive recovery - Conveyor Belt Demand: Low start, high finish Port Industry: - First Half: Throughput up 6% - Second Half: Foreign trade improvement drives growth - Conveyor Belt Demand: Continuous growth ### 2. Export Market Analysis First Half Exports: - Export Volume: Up 12% year-on-year - Major Markets: Southeast Asia, Africa, South America - Product Mix: Increasing share of mid-to-high-end products Second Half Outlook: - Significant potential in "Belt and Road" markets - Dividend release from RCEP agreement - Impact of exchange rate fluctuations - Expectation: Export growth of 8-10% ## III. Capacity Supply Status ### 1. Industry Capacity - Total Capacity: Approximately 8 billion square meters/year - Capacity Utilization Rate: 65-70% - Structural Surplus: Oversupply of low-end products, shortage of high-end products ### 2. New Capacity Planned for Launch in Second Half: - Company in Shandong: 500 million square meters/year - Company in Zhejiang: 300 million square meters/year - Total: 800 million square meters/year - Impact: Intensified market competition ### 3. Obsolete Capacity Exit - Small and medium enterprises failing environmental standards - Production lines with outdated technology - Expected Exit: 200-300 million square meters/year ## IV. Price Trend Forecast ### 1. General Conveyor Belts (EP Series) First Half Average Price: 45 CNY/square meter Second Half Forecast: - Cost Side: Slight decrease in raw materials - Demand Side: Overall stable - Competition: Intense price wars - Expectation: 43-46 CNY/square meter - Trend: Stable with slight decline ### 2. Steel Cord Conveyor Belts First Half Average Price: 120 CNY/square meter Second Half Forecast: - Cost Side: Stable steel wire prices - Demand Side: Supported by large-scale projects - Technical Barriers: Relatively stable pricing - Expectation: 115-125 CNY/square meter - Trend: Basically stable ### 3. Specialized Conveyor Belts Heat-Resistant Belts: - Expectation: 65-75 CNY/square meter - Trend: Stable with slight increase Flame-Retardant Belts: - Expectation: 55-65 CNY/square meter - Trend: Strong demand, firm prices Patterned Belts: - Expectation: 50-60 CNY/square meter - Trend: Intense competition, downward price pressure ## V. Procurement Recommendations ### 1. Procurement Timing - Months 7-8: Traditional off-season, lower prices - Months 9-10: Demand recovery, prices stabilize - Months 11-12: Year-end volume push, potential discounts ### 2. Procurement Strategy - Long-term Cooperation: Secure high-quality suppliers - Bulk Purchasing: Negotiate for better prices - Futures Mindset: Build inventory at appropriate times ### 3. Product Selection - Prioritize cost-effective products - Focus on new products and technologies - Emphasize after-sales service ## VI. Risk Warnings ### 1. Upward Risks - Sharp rise in crude oil prices - Unexpected tightening of environmental policies - Supply disruptions due to unexpected events ### 2. Downward Risks - Macroeconomy underperforming expectations - Continued real estate downturn - Escalating international trade friction Baoding Zhongbo closely monitors market dynamics and provides clients with the latest price information and procurement advice. Welcome to consult us.